Russia has gradually reduced the daily growth of new cases COVID-19. The head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova in an interview Naila Asker-zade on the TV channel “Russia 24” has told, whether to fear the arrival of a new wave of coronavirus, at what stage is the development of a vaccine from him, whether pupils return to their desks in September, and when it will be safe to open up international flights.
– Why the number of cases per day in Russia is not reduced significantly, but stays still at around 7-8 thousand?
I can’t agree with you, it is reduced. And the question is significant or insignificant is probably secondary. It is reduced day by day. Yesterday’s decline showed that it has less than 8 thousand much. And the dynamics we see in almost all subjects, remain little more than 10 subjects that do not yet show such a serious dynamical downscaling as everyone else.
And of course we have two different epidemics, it was obvious initially, we talked about this. One epidemic — is the Moscow region where the virus came first. The population density here is absolutely different than in other regions of the Russian Federation. There was a high rise at first, but, however, not like in other countries. At the peak, at the maximum daily numbers incidence we were still two times lower per 100 thousand population than in a large part of European countries. It is important to note. That is, we prevented overloading of the health system and saved the people.
Today, there is a decline. But today the overwhelming part of cases in daily registration is the people in the regions of the Russian Federation. Very rapidly declining situation in Moscow is 4 times lower today, probably, and 5 times lower than the daily recording than it was two weeks ago. This is a fairly rapid decline. And then for the Moscow region is slightly slower but reduces the situation in the Moscow region. In the same consistent and pstepennoi dynamics — no explosive growth is reduced and leaves the situation in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We are certainly glad to celebrate. But this is a situation where one should not unnecessarily get my hopes up, don’t relax and say that now. No, not all. As yet not all.
– is there any information about how many of cases are asymptomatic carriers? People of what age is now often sick?
We all together are very sure older people, for whom this disease carries special risks, not sick. Today the structure is about the same. About 15% is older people, older than 60 years. We have changes in the group of children. If at the beginning in the General structure of sick children got the 5%, today it is 7.5%. But mostly the increase is due to teenagers, that is, at the expense of children from 15 to 18 years — here growth is significant. This is just one category of our population which is least committed to abide by any rules, and this is clearly reflected in this epidemic. Here it is necessary, of course, to influence the consciousness that the means of prevention work for this population. The rest are adults of working age, and here, in General, virtually unchanged.
speaking of asymptomatic, then on different days we see up to 60%, and in General, the statistics show that about 50% actively identified carriers or people with asymptomatic form. And this is very good for the country, because this is active detection, when we examine the contact groups, when we examine those who have reason to suspect that he was in contact with someone. And among them, we identify 50% of all cases are people who had clinic, which was examined for some other reasons. This structure shows that everything is working efficiently.
– And in which regions the epidemiological situation raises concerns?
– there are about 10. And I think that the situation can change. Tothe number of them decreases every day. There were 25, 22, 17, there are now 13. I hope that in a few days we can talk about the fact that we have such regions where there is a tendency to high levels and no tendency to decrease, very little or absolutely not.
– how do You assess the actions of regional authorities to lifting restrictions? Whether they were justified?
– the Regional authorities, in my opinion, a very balanced approach to the assessment of the situation. We very often consult. My colleagues in the subjects in touch with me and my subordinates in the Central office. Involved in the assessment process and our academic institutions, which is very important. And I think that the government in subjects suitable to the cancellation is very reasonable and gently. But in order to understand whether this is so, we have a special monitoring system. And after each such action in each subject we build dynamic charts. We immediately begin to see how the decision to ease restrictions further affect the dynamics. I want to tell you that we have almost no cases when after the decision in critical subsequent 7-8 days, the situation has changed for the worst. Today the balanced system approach in all subjects. At first, when just beginning to use the new guidelines when quickly wanted to escape, Yes, some such cases were. But today, everyone lined lined up, there is a full understanding and accuracy of action here is unconditional.
– When the number of cases per day will be less than a thousand?
– I’d like to see the number of cases per day was generally equal to zero is the parameter to which we aspire. I hope in another month we will need in order to reach the lowest level. But I want to say that different countries have their own weekly or daily level that is still quite a long time and is not reduced. For example, the US long enough period of time daily register of the order of 20 of thousands of cases, Spain and Italy about 500 cases, Turkey has about 1000 instances.
– You were talking about the United States. We’ve reflected a mass rally on the number of cases per day on the epidemiological situation in the country?
I think that both affects, and will affect, of course. With this amount of infectious material within the population, this could not remain without reaction of the virus and peprocess.
– Mask mode is maintained, including in Moscow. When citizens will be able to remove the mask without risk to health?
just when the epidemic situation will become absolutely stable, when we understand that we have reached a level that is optimal for us. To say that the virus is gone completely, today there are no such grounds. But we have to reach a level where there will be growth, and this level is not the minimum will be maintained continuously within a certain time. We will see that this preservation is certainly part of peprocess, but it is in remission. Up to this point, you should try to maintain your health and to go in the mask.
Western experts recommend to alternate hard and the quarantine restrictions are lifted. Is it possible in Russia?
– You know, I think that today, such recommendations are, of course, have the right to life. But each country and each situation is exclusive. And we know little about the virus. We know very little about its epidemiology. And this is very important for us to understand if we are going to go by the type of softening and mitigating, or we, in the end, will have the same population immunity, which will allow us to more restrictions not to enter.
New wave, about which experts say, where it can appear? Virus again will be delivered, or existing viruses will mutate?
– of Course, those who will arrive or arrive in the country to be infected with. That is to get across the border the virus to any country. Now a number of countries carefully opens in Europe, so it’s bound to be. And wesaid that the incidence rate in the country is also defined there. He is the lowest, but it does mean that the virus in the population is, then, might be its further development. Already determined that it relates to respiratory viruses, which are characterized by autumn-winter seasonal. In the summer, we hope all measures to reduce the intensity of peprocess. But while the risks that this peprocess will return to phase of recovery and development in autumn, that’s enough. While we are preparing for it. I don’t want to say fear or afraid, but we must be ready.
– On the market in Beijing have discovered a new virus, and scientists say that it is more contagious than the one that was previously discovered. You already have some official information on this question?
– We keep track of the information that appears in the public sphere. While in the scientific press anything about the situation there. But the situation, in my opinion, not exceptional. In Russia for the fourth consecutive year all cases of group diseases decrypts to a level when it becomes clear what kind of pathogen caused disease it’s a group. Our current capabilities allow us to say where a particular pathogen emerged in our country. For example, measles. Seems the same flowing, always the same contagiousness, one clinic, but the agents are a little different. We can tell where this virus came from Europe, from Asia, or is it some kind of African version of the virus. That is our present capabilities allow us to determine, let’s say, the passport and the history of this virus. Likewise with the novel coronavirus.
– And we have some circulating?
– we still circulates the same European, who is from China came to Europe, and from Europe came to the Russian Federation. We see today. Obviously, our Chinese colleagues now see that this is not the virus that they had initially at the beginning of January and February and a slightly different version. Or nextAMI, so to speak, of its presence or distribution in Europe. I understand that show our Chinese colleagues. But I think that more clarification will be later.
– When would it be safe to open up international air travel, including for tourists? It is clear that Russian citizens will be able to go only when more countries will open their borders.
– Here part of the answer to your previous question — you can bring the infection or can’t. When we’re absolutely sure that we will not re-export of the virus in Russia with those who come. When the small number of patients — as was the case in February and early March, when there was a small amount coming to Russia in our own citizens, tourists from Europe who were carrying the virus — we can handle it. The population of its capacity could handle. But when they become many, then the risks of proliferation — we see it in Russia, and other countries that demonstrate they are increasing. When these risks are minimal when the risk of spreading disease will not be here then we can open the borders and international flights to start. It’s now showing and our colleagues in Europe very carefully, very gradually, very slowly, weighing all the risks, the pros and cons.
Well, that is flights with countries where a lot of cases, will start in the last turn?
– the Dynamism of the current epidemiological situation is also quite high. Everything is changing quickly.
– Russian schoolchildren, the CPS allowed September 1 to come to school and start learning without the risks?
– so that they are without risk sat at their desks, we have made special recommendations how to organize the educational process in the school. Because, of course, you need to learn cannot be undone. And, in General, today the situation is manageable. We increasingly know about the new virus, how it spreads, as consideredto predict this distribution. Therefore, the relatively high share of confidence today is that in early September, our wonderful students will return to school and will be in full volume to enjoy the learning process.
In Moscow removed almost all restrictions, however, testing continues. How often should I be tested for working people, not to miss a disease, not to infect others?
– One of the strategic goals to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus in Russia is an extension of testing. So we can see better and more all possible risks. Asli, we know that we have no contacts, no risk – we are behaving properly, go to the mask, the gloves would do that even with some frequency makes no sense. If this requirement is for the employer — we have a number of professions that require people to constantly confirm their health — so with the frequency that is defined. But exactly more often than 1 time a week, you can’t do it. Why? Incubation 14 days, half of incubation 7 days. The period of clinical signs from 6 to 8 days. Therefore, if it is done every 7 days, we can say that we will see the moment when the virus will begin to develop in the body.
– In what stage is the development of a vaccine against the coronavirus? And how many vaccines can get to the stage of research in humans?
– We hope that as much as are ready for it, there are those that will be safe and effective. It two necessary defining properties of the vaccine, each new drug that allow you to move on to testing on humans. I’m sure within the next two weeks we will see a few vaccines that will enter the stage of clinical trials, i.e. studies in humans.
– And You do make your own vaccinations?
I always do vaccinations. My family members, my parents make every yeart flu shots and all vaccinations due to age. The younger members of my family too, all grafted on the calendar. I believe that it is absolutely necessary in our age, when our entire population on Earth has become vaccinazioni. Without vaccines we would be very bad.
– And from the coronavirus will be to get vaccinated?
– as soon As a vaccine, of course.