the Head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina does not expect a quick recovery of the Russian economy. This is hindered by a number of factors.
By the end of 2020 Russian GDP may decline by 4-6%, according to the Central Bank. The full return of the Russian economy to pre-crisis levels in 2019 will only happen in the first half of 2022, the head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina during an online press conference, which was broadcast channel “Russia 24”.
the Second, third and fourth quarter will be the most difficult, and then “followed by a restore”. In the second quarter may reduce GDP by 8-10%.
“the Full return of GDP levels in 2019 are likely to occur only in the first half of 2022, — said Nabiullina. — The positive effect of the easing monetary policy is mainly manifested in 2021”.
Rapid return the Russian economy to pre-crisis levels hamper the feeble recovery of the world economy, global trade, the gap of logistics and production chains.
the Central Bank fixes the “signs of partial recovery in economic activity” with the gradual easing of restrictive measures in most regions, “but it will take time to restore production and supply chain,” explained Elvira.
Much remains uncertain: the business may change investment and production plans, and the public — the “consumer preferences”. The population may “be wary of the costs, would prefer to save, to defer a major or optional purchases”, — said the head of the Central Bank.
the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at the meeting on Friday, June 19, lowered the key rate from 5.5% to 4.5%, according to a statement the regulator. Such a low level is reached for the first time since then, as the key rate introduced by the Bank of Russia 13 September 2013 as the main indicaThor monetary policy.
After a surge in prices in March-April, inflation is back to normal, and even expected quicker slower price growth than projected. At the end of the year inflation may be below 4%, said the Central Bank. This allows to reduce the rate more strongly. The Bank of Russia allows for a further reduction of interest rates on mortgage loans and deposits. This trend may continue due to the reduction of the key rate.