In 2019 in Russia was a bad crop of rye: according to Rosstat, the gross grain harvest amounted to 1,429 million tons, which is the lowest level since 1965.
This factor, as well as historically low stocks of rye in Russia led to the fact that its cost producers has grown considerably. So, in November of last year the average price rose 43 percent, to 8942 rubles per ton. Processors are bought rye for 12 665 thousand rubles per ton, which is 44 percent higher than in November 2018. In this regard, the experts predict a rise in prices of rye flour and bakery products in the current year.
the President of the Russian Guild of bakers and confectioners (Rospik) Yuri Katsnelson admits that the price of bread and bakery products from rye and mixtures of rye and wheat flour will increase by 6.5-7 percent for the year. However, according to him, a more substantial effect on the price of bread has increased housing prices, lease rates, prices for fuels and lubricants, transport services and packaging.
According to Respec, average consumer prices for bread of rye and rye-wheat flour in 2017-2018 increased by 3.1 and 5.4 percent, respectively, and by the end of November 2019 rose by 5.8% YTD (from 48.6 to 51.4 ruble rubles per kilogram).
Deputy Director General of the Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) Irina Glazunov reported that rye flour is now more expensive than wheat: in December, food rye cost about 14 thousand rubles per ton, and wheat class 3 and 4 is 12.8 and 12 thousand rubles per ton. For comparison, three years ago the price was about 8.55 thousand, 11 thousand and 9.35 thousand rubles per ton, respectively.
According to the Executive Director of the Association of producers and suppliers of food products (Rusprodsoyuz), Dmitry Vostrikova, since rye flour is more expensive than wheat flour of good quality, buyers will simply go with black bread on a grey or white, and thus will reduce the SPROS. If the price increase will be, it will not be more than 5-10 percent, the expert added.
in addition, the factor of cost containment in the rye can be, in particular, imports of rye flour from Belarus or the Baltic countries, as well as replacement manufacturers of bread rye flour and wheat second grade, writes RIA Novosti.
In August 2019, Rosstat reported that since the beginning of the year the price of bread and bakery products in Russia increased by 7.7 percent compared to the same period in 2018.