In the last week of June, despite the G-7 and NATO summits in Germany, there was little movement in the domestic political mood. The new “political barometer” by the research group elections on behalf of ZDF, which was published on Friday, shows little change: the CDU and CSU win in the Sunday question (“Which party would you vote for if the general election were on Sunday?”) compared to the previous week one percentage point, while the chancellor party SPD lost one percentage point. The Union is now six percentage points ahead of the SPD (21 percent) with 27 percent.
The values of all other parties remain unchanged: The Greens could continue to count on 25 percent, the AfD with 10 percent, the FDP with 6 percent and the left with 5 percent. All other parties together are unchanged at 6 percent, including no party that comes to at least three percent.
In the surveys of other institutes in the past ten days, the Union is between 26 and 27 percent, the Greens between 21.5 and 24 percent, the SPD between 20 and 23 percent, the AfD between 9 and 12 percent, the FDP between 8 and 8 percent 9 percent, the left between 4 and 4.5 percent and all other parties together between 5.5 and 9 percent.
The “Politbarometer” also asked about the popularity ratings of top German politicians. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) is no longer among the top ten most important politicians, while Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) is back.
In the assessment of sympathy and performance (“What do you think of?”), the Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck is still in first place. It is rated on a scale of 5 to -5 with an average score of 2.0 (June: 2.1). Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) came second with 1.6 (1.6) ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) in third place with 1.2 (1.1).
In the middle are Heil, Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir (Greens) with 1.1 each and Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach (SPD) with 0.7. They are followed by Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) with an improved 0.4 and Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU), who with 0.2 is now ahead of CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (0.0). At the end of the list is the left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 0.7.
Only 19 percent of those surveyed expect the war in Ukraine to end this year. However, more than three quarters (76 percent) believe that the war will last longer.
According to 44 percent of those surveyed, the military support that western states are providing to Ukraine should be increased. Another 32 percent are in favor of maintaining the previous aid and only 18 percent think there should be less military support – including, unsurprisingly, the majority of supporters of the AfD (62 percent) and the left (52 percent).
For the majority of those surveyed, the Western defense alliance is of enormous importance for Germany’s security. 60 percent consider NATO very important and 30 percent important. Only 4 percent assign it a less important role and 3 percent no importance at all.
61 percent and majorities in all party supporter groups do not consider the federal government’s measures to cushion the sharp rise in prices to be sufficient. A good quarter (26 percent) thinks that is just about right and for 6 percent the government is even doing too much here.
Respondents are now more critical of the consequences of inflation for the country and for them personally than they were three months ago. After 73 percent at the beginning of April, 83 percent now believe that the sharp rise in prices is a major problem for prosperity in Germany in many areas. Only 16 percent don’t see it that way. 40 percent are personally facing major problems with inflation, compared to 34 percent three months ago. According to their own statements, this is not the case for 60 percent.
For the coming winter, a majority sees serious problems in Germany’s supply of natural gas. 58 percent expect corresponding bottlenecks for private households (no problems: 39 percent) and three quarters (75 percent) expect bottlenecks for industry (no problems: 22 percent). The federal government wants to become independent of Russia in terms of energy supply – 38 percent of those surveyed rate the efforts made to date as sufficient, and a good half (53 percent) believe that the government is not doing enough to achieve this.
In order to secure the energy supply in the coming years, the further use of various energy sources is being discussed. The vast majority of respondents (91 percent) are in favor of accelerating the expansion of renewable energies (in contrast: 7 percent). Running coal-fired power plants longer than previously planned is supported by 60 percent (vs. 37 percent) and longer runtimes for nuclear power plants by 57 percent (vs. 41 percent).
The survey for the “Politbarometer” was conducted by the Research Group Elections. The interviews were conducted by telephone from June 28th to 30th with 1186 randomly selected voters. Both landline and mobile phone numbers were taken into account. The survey is representative of the voting population in Germany. The margin of error is around /- three percentage points for a share value of 40 percent and around /- two percentage points for a share value of 10 percent.