Chinese center for control and disease prevention has released the largest study of coronavirus COVID-19. It covers more than 44 thousand cases. It seems that the epidemic is on the decline, but to relax early, warn researchers.
“These data give us a better idea of the age range affected by the [infection] of people, disease severity and mortality, – says Director General of the world health organization Tedros Ghebreyesus (Tedros Ghebreyesus). Thus, they are very important to who could provide countries with high quality, based on credible evidence recommendations”.
the Study covers 44672-confirmed cases of infection COVID-19. Of these, 81% were classified as mild, 14% as severe and 5% as critical. Fatal disease has resulted in 2,3% of cases.
For comparison, SARS (SARS) epidemic which broke out in 2002-2003, killed nearly 10% of patients. At the same time, mortality from seasonal influenza in the United States in the fall of 2019 winter 2020 amounted to 0.1%.
at risk for COVID-19 primarily older people. Among patients younger than 40 years old – and that about half of the cases died of only 0.2%, and among children up to 9 years deaths in the study, generally was not. For patients over 40, the risk increases gradually with age. Among those over 80, have died almost 15% of cases.
Note that this is not the age as such, but in related diseases. Among the infected who have no other diagnoses, he died only 0.9%. Moreover, among people suffering from cardiovascular diseases the mortality rate was 10.5%, chronic respiratory diseases and 6.3%, diabetes was 7.3 per cent.
the Study also confirmed that mortality among men is higher than among women (2.8 percent vs. 1.7 percent).
While 86% of the patients either reside in the city of Wuhan, or had recently been there. Recall that it is ethe town became the centre of the epidemic. From January 23 to enter and exit from restricted quarantine measures.
Virus COVID-19 as at 11 Feb 2020 1716 infected healthcare workers, five of whom died.
As the authors of the study, the epidemic reached a peak between 24 and 26 January 2020. Since then there has been a slow decline in the number of cases. It is possible that the reason was the strict quarantine measures adopted by the Chinese authorities.
However, it is too early to say that it’s all over.
“This trend should be interpreted very carefully, warns Hebraicus. – Trends can change, when will be affected by new populations. It is too early to say whether continue this decline. All scenarios still on the agenda”.
In particular, experts fear further outbreaks, when the masses of people back to work and study due to the fact that the protracted new year holidays in China all over.
By the way, before “News.Science” (nauka.vesti.ru) wrote about the online map of the distribution of the new coronavirus, and also that it can be transmitted through feces. We talked about the first images of a pathogen.