The ruble in January: Brexit will outshine all

estimates of the Information-analytical center (IAC)”Alpari”, the ruble ends the Dec in a great mood and on the rise. “Russian” in relation to the dollar rose in December by 3.4% and almost the same amount has risen against the Euro (3.3%). In the third week of December, the ruble has updated annual maxima and have already returned to the levels of 2018, prior to the introduction of “trompowsky” sanctions. In December the rouble supported high oil prices. So, Brent crude rose over the month, down 8.6% after the OPEC decision regarding the extension of the agreement on the reduction of oil production for the first quarter of 2020. In addition, the emerging compromise between the US and China on the exit of the trade conflict and the failure of both countries to reciprocally increase the customs duties in December also had a positive impact on global financial markets.

And what about the “Russians” waiting for the beginning of the new 2020?

After the Christmas holidays released statistics of Rosstat, inflation in consumer prices for December and the whole of 2019. We believe that by the end of 2019, the inflation will not exceed 3.6 percent, and if inflation will remain at the same level, it will be welcomed by the FX market. Note that the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia the first meeting on the interest rate in 2020 will hold in February, so in January, the ruble will be deprived of one of the important landmarks.

However, on 23 January, the interest rate decision will the European Central Bank. We believe that with a high probability of the ECB interest rate will remain unchanged at zero. Negative interest rates in recent years, often criticized, and in November earned the program of asset purchases, the ECB on the open market, so monetary policy easing is already underway and it is unlikely that the European regulator will take additional measures for that purpose. The ECB’s decision, most likely, will not have a significant impact on the Euro, as the Euro focuses more on the situation with the Brexit, the Deputy leaderdriver IAC “Alpari”, candidate of economic Sciences Natalia Milchakova.

on 29 January, the fed will publish the first in the new year, the interest rate decision. We believe that the interest rate at the January meeting, again, will remain unchanged — at the level of 1.5-1.75 percent. For the ruble, this news is likely to be a small negative and the reason for the downward correction, however, if between China and the United States again will not have friction, then the collapse of the ruble can not wait.

And January 31, the whole world will turn towards the European Union and emerging (now with very high probability) from EU UK. Recall that in late December the Parliament of the United Kingdom finally adopted by a majority of votes the bill on Brexit, and informed about the inevitability of a British exit from the EU said Queen Elizabeth II. Brexit will be a short-term negative for the Euro, although strong collapse is unlikely to happen, since the news is already familiar to the market. As for the British pound sterling can come on hard times. But Russian ruble is a significant economic event directly is not much affected: the UK major trading partner of Russia is not.

At the beginning of 2020, we recommend you to allocate savings between ruble and US dollar is approximately equal shares. Since interest rates on foreign currency deposits is very low, it is better to pay attention to high-quality us stocks or Eurobonds denominated in dollars.

By the dollar against the ruble in December, we expect 61 to 63 rubles per dollar, at the exchange rate of the Euro against the ruble — 68-71 ruble per Euro.