estimates of the IAC “Alpari”, in July the ruble will remain depending on the previous set of factors – the cost of oil, the relationship the global risk appetite, sentiment. The arrangement of the external forces will depend on the market’s interest to risky assets and the Russian debt, and it is important for the ruble. If oil prices are stable, in the range of $35-45 per barrel of Brent, the “Russians” will continue to support this side.
the Theme with the coronavirus gradually fades into the background, but only in the press and from an emotional point of view. In fact, the risks of the formation of the second wave is very high, and it’s more serious than it seems at first glance. Fast removal of restrictions in society has one big side-effect: people get used to threats and stop paying attention to them and, therefore, become careless and are more vulnerable to the virus.
Monetary policy is neutral, said Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at IAC Alpari. The CBR has already adopted an important decision on the key rate in July, it will remain at 4.5% per annum, but in the near future, most likely in September, this figure can be lowered further. It is very important not to hurry and to assess the effect of steps taken.
Russian Domestic demand for foreign currency remains above average levels. Many Russians who do not have time to spend “pods” for the quarantine time, transferred their savings in foreign currency “just in case”. In General, the population continues to adhere to savings and not consumer behavior that affects the demand and, consequently, the pace of economic recovery. While the ruble is a neutral point, but in the future he can develop into a factor of pressure.
Expectations for the U.S. dollar in July are as follows: the most probable variations in the range of 68-71 rubles, but still mid-summer, we often will see a range of 69-70 rubles. The Euro exchange rate in July will remain within the corridor 78-79 RUB.