The trend in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia – Union and Greens are increasing, SPD, FDP and AfD are losing – is also reflected in the new RTL / ntv trend barometer from Forsa, although the majority of the data for this before the election Sunday (May 15) were raised.

With an increase of one percentage point compared to the previous week to 27 percent, the Union is still clearly in first place, while the Greens also gained one percentage point and at 22 percent draw level with the SPD (minus one percentage point).

The FDP and AfD each lost one percentage point to 8 percent, the Left remained unchanged at 4 percent. The other parties together improve by one percentage point to 9 percent.

In the surveys of other institutes in the past week, the Union is between 26 and 28 percent, the SPD between 20 and 22 percent, the Greens between 19 and 20 percent, the AfD between 10 and 11 percent, the FDP between 8 and 9 percent, the left between 3 and 5 percent and the other parties together between 7 and 9 percent.

According to Forsa, the war in the Ukraine remains by far the topic that concerns Germans the most, at 79 percent. This is followed by the topics of energy and energy prices (36 percent) and the corona pandemic (27 percent), which is becoming less important in perception.

Olaf Scholz’s profile of characteristics is ambivalent five months after his election as Federal Chancellor. 66 percent of Germans consider the SPD politician to be “hesitant”, 30 percent to be “discouraged”. At the same time, a majority of Germans think that Scholz speaks clearly (62 percent) and considers him to be “competent” (61 percent), “sympathetic” (57 percent) and “trustworthy” (56 percent). On the other hand, only a minority of Germans believe that Scholz can lead Germany well through crises (38 percent) and that he has an international reputation (36 percent). Only a third (32 percent) consider him to be a “strong leader”.

Compared to September 2021, however, Scholz’s assessment of the properties surveyed at the time has improved. This applies in particular to the characteristics “trustworthy” (plus 26 percentage points) and “likeable” (plus 24 percentage points). More citizens now also believe than before the federal election that Scholz has an international reputation (plus 17 percentage points). Only slightly more citizens consider him to be “strong in leadership” than in September last year (plus 6 percentage points).

Just over a quarter (27 percent) have the impression that Olaf Scholz explains his politics adequately to the citizens. Two thirds (68 percent), on the other hand, think Scholz should explain his politics better. This view is shared by a large majority in East and West and across all political camps.

27 percent believe that Friedrich Merz would be the Union’s most suitable candidate for the next federal election. On the other hand, 49 percent believe that there are candidates in the Union who would be better suited than Friedrich Merz. 24 percent have no opinion on this. Of the supporters of the CDU/CSU, 43 percent consider Merz the most suitable candidate for chancellor in the Union, almost as many (42 percent) believe that there are candidates who would be better suited.

15 percent of Germans believe that Friedrich Merz would be a better chancellor than Olaf Scholz. 39 percent believe that Merz would be a worse chancellor than Scholz. 37 percent see no major difference between the two.

The data on party preferences and topic radar were collected by Forsa from May 10th to 16th. Database: 2502 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 2.5 percentage points. The data on Olaf Scholz was collected on May 12th and 13th. Database: 1002 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 3 percentage points. The data on Friedrich Merz was collected from May 13th to 16th. Database: 1005 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: /- 3 percentage points.